Suez Canal: the fragility of the giant.

 The Gulf of Suez and the Nile Delta were united by the genius of men long before the official inauguration of the present Suez Canal. The Egypt of the Pharaohs had perfectly understood the need to control the river and sea routes, both for the survival of its population and for its economic development.

When the French diplomat Ferdinand de Lesseps founded the Suez Company in the 19th century and signed a 99-year concession with the Viceroy of Egypt, the aim was to link the Mediterranean to the Red Sea in an exceptional project that would last more than ten years. Egypt's desire to modernize and the context of strong development of international trade was the framework for this large-scale project with an obvious geopolitical dimension.

The management of this mythical canal will nevertheless often be challenged by international political crises and the regional conflicts of the second half of the 20th century.

In 2014, the new Suez Canal was launched by Marshal AL-Sissi, anxious to revitalize the Egyptian economy but also reinforce the legitimacy of the military regime at the time.

Except for very rare exceptions during times of conflict, the flow of ships has always been permanent and dense, with about fifty very large ships per day.

The heart of the international markets beats to the rhythm of these flows, as the Suez Canal remains a major and unavoidable route for international trade, with nearly 10% of the world's maritime trade being conducted through it.

More than 19 000 merchant ships passed through this waterway in one year, bringing, according to experts, the equivalent of more than 4 billion euros to Egypt for the year 2020 alone. The Egyptian government is not hiding its desire to double the Canal's revenues by 2023 and to create more than a million jobs in this high growth projection. 

It is therefore understandable that the international markets froze in their tracks at the end of March when the ship "Ever Given", a very large carrier of more than 200,000 tons, caused the world economy to lose nearly 400 million dollars per hour by accidentally running aground in the middle of the Suez Canal.

Behind this giant of the seas, nearly 100 billion dollars worth of goods and hundreds of large merchant ships remained blocked for several days, to the great dismay of economists and certain governments, including that of Egypt, which immediately realized the highly sensitive nature of the situation.

In a few hours, the oil supply became a major international concern and the New York and London stock exchanges panicked.

Japan, the country of origin of Ever Given's owner, expressed its deepest apologies and distress at this economic disaster with worldwide repercussions, while the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the Middle East and Turkey mobilized to try to unblock the situation.

Fully aware of what was at stake, Russia immediately offered its help and at the same time recalled the importance of diversifying maritime access routes, stressing that the route from the Arctic, which is much more accessible and practicable since the ice melted, is a commercial route of the future...

The message Russia is sending to the world is impressively accurate and there are lessons to be learned...

 The reason why a stopped ship can impact the world economy in a few hours is that the Suez Canal is a highly strategic maritime route, not only because of its geographical (and therefore political) location, but also because it is a unique route in many respects.

Without it, traffic would have to bypass the African continent or use much more complex and lengthy routes, an inconceivable solution in terms of cost and profitability.

Yet Egypt has implemented a policy of doubling the Canal's shipping lanes to make maritime traffic more profitable and competitive, and to optimize the fluidity and frequency of the passage of large carriers. It is nevertheless true that betting everything on a single passage at the crossroads of the Gulf, Europe, Africa, and Asia is, despite everything, a highly risky bet.

Moreover, the rail and land routes, although allowing the transport of smaller volumes of goods, deserve to be developed, in a more pragmatic, perhaps a more reasonable approach to globalization.

Finally, it is important to stress that the particularly optimistic forecasts of growth in Suez Canal activity, formulated by Egypt, remain totally conditional on the maintenance of a stable world situation from a political and economic point of view.

                                                                                                                                Riadh BENAÏSSA.